Patronizing armchair pundits have long chastised the GOP for lacking “diversity” and touted the left’s victories with Black and Hispanic voters, but new swing state polling could have Democrats eating those words.
Across the most contentious battleground states in the country, it is former President Donald Trump whose base is expanding with minorities while Biden’s support shrinks to predominantly wealthy white Democrats.
This phenomenon is one Americans for Limited Government has been tracing since Trump’s first term, but 2024 could be the election to fully embody this jarring new political alignment.
While Democrats have become fixated on identity politics, making “social justice” a cornerstone of the party and constantly bowing to woke culture, they are hemorrhaging votes with women, young people, and minorities.
The GOP has the possibility to become a significantly more diverse party, with recent analysis showing Trump winning back sizeable shares of women and young people compared to 2020, in addition to making massive in-roads with minorities.
A recent New York Times swing state poll covering six battleground states Biden won in 2020 – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – found that Biden’s support has dropped a startling 33 percentage points among non-whites compared to 2020 results. The data also found Biden is performing the worst in states with large non-white populations like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
Biden is shown losing Arizona by five percentage points after winning it by a narrow 0.3% in 2020. Biden is also shown losing Georgia, a state which is about half non-white, by six points after winning it narrowly by 0.2% in 2020. In Nevada, which is over half non-white, Biden suffers the absolute worst, trailing Trump by a full 11 percentage points after winning the state by 2.4% in 2020.
Meanwhile, in less diverse Wisconsin, Biden is seen losing to Trump by a narrower two percentage-point margin.
The Times poll shows Trump’s support among Black voters has risen to 22 percentage points, a ten percentage-point shift from 2020 results. This startled even The Times which stated Trump’s share of the Black vote was “unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.”
The poll also reveals Biden leads Trump by single-digits among Hispanics, after winning Hispanics nationally by 33 percentage-points.
Why is it that while the Biden Administration and leftist Democrats have made “diversity” the focal point of their party, they are losing minorities by double-digits compared to 2020?
The Times data shows Black and Hispanic voters are particularly motivated by the economy, with 65% of Black voters and 66% of Hispanic voters compared to 53% of whites saying the state of the economy is their number one issue when determining who to vote for.
Hispanics have a particularly bleak view of the economy as well, with 86% saying they would rate the economy as fair/poor, compared to 80% of Blacks and 79% of whites.
Low-income and minority households are particularly affected by inflation, especially those who don’t own inflation-resistant assets like homes and land, so it is little surprise that “Bidenomics” is not earning Democrats any gold stars among minorities. The modern Democratic Party has left minorities behind in pursuit of their self-serving globalist agenda, and they could soon lose an entire block of reliable voters for the first time in modern history.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.